Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 2.767084 2.962118 3.171585 3.414608 3.690510 3.996078 4.363022
2025-02-23 2.477362 2.737277 3.032205 3.396114 3.839578 4.371504 5.072602
2025-03-02 2.285163 2.578477 2.923912 3.369040 3.940565 4.669992 5.708684
2025-03-09 2.142498 2.456035 2.835929 3.342467 4.021137 4.934273 6.328154
2025-03-16 2.037956 2.367303 2.776061 3.337462 4.118795 5.222783 7.026176
2025-03-23 1.970531 2.317444 2.757887 3.380337 4.279937 5.616630 7.966468
2025-03-30 1.877485 2.227232 2.678457 3.329405 4.296740 5.790241 8.574397
2025-04-06 1.795039 2.145259 2.603379 3.276258 4.301256 5.940187 9.171033
2025-04-13 1.708078 2.052406 2.507412 3.184703 4.235886 5.962731 9.522567
2025-04-20 1.672361 2.025874 2.500229 3.220886 4.372365 6.347268 10.733011
2025-04-27 1.649195 2.014607 2.512787 3.286114 4.561066 6.855163 12.417213
2025-05-04 1.625675 2.001241 2.520872 3.344015 4.742634 7.382342 14.407894
2025-05-11 1.577148 1.951590 2.474856 3.315347 4.773783 7.622375 15.761736
2025-05-18 1.534233 1.908062 2.435577 3.294563 4.816765 7.896218 17.396847
2025-05-25 1.493037 1.865212 2.395009 3.268493 4.846660 8.146942 19.137987
2025-06-01 1.454895 1.825199 2.356655 3.243196 4.874862 8.399403 21.102520
2025-06-08 1.424451 1.795086 2.331734 3.238434 4.941678 8.758347 23.889049
2025-06-15 1.407008 1.783108 2.333727 3.279191 5.102629 9.392464 28.902659
2025-06-22 1.369523 1.740333 2.286133 3.230772 5.076606 9.528254 31.364738
2025-06-29 1.333574 1.698750 2.238832 3.180222 5.041551 9.633991 33.872562
2025-07-06 1.291031 1.646252 2.172685 3.093076 4.922171 9.480150 34.348840
2025-07-13 1.277899 1.637184 2.174638 3.127526 5.066570 10.131768 42.867887
2025-07-20 1.271318 1.637589 2.191444 3.189599 5.278838 11.063785 58.728045